Brent Crude
Global benchmark
$113.44/bbl
A $1/bbl move ≈ $0.0063 USD/L jet fuel impact
Crisis Monitor
EU Jet Fuel Reserve Crisis
Europe faces a structural aviation fuel squeeze. This dashboard tracks reserve levels, price surges, and the SAF competitiveness inflection point in real time.
ELEVATED — SAF switch window opening
3.0 weeks
Updated 4/23/2026 · Next: 4/30/2026 · IATA / EUROCONTROL estimates (manually curated)
0w2w (critical)4w (elevated)8w+ (normal)
Jet Fuel (EU Proxy)
ARA / Rotterdam basis
$0.856/L
Directly tied to reserve scarcity. Higher = shorter effective reserves.
Carbon Proxy
CBAM + EU ETS pressure
$88.79/tCO₂
At €150/tCO₂ (2030 target), SAF breakeven shifts decisively.
The crisis chain: reserves → prices → SAF inflection
Step 1
Reserve depletion
EU jet fuel stocks drawn down to ~3.0 weeks. Geopolitical disruption + refining bottlenecks.
Step 2
Price spike
Jet-A spot rises with scarcity. Current EU proxy $0.856/L — up from ~$0.75/L in 2024.
Step 3
Route economics break
Short-haul margins collapse (fuel = ~30% of cost). Lufthansa already cut 20,000 flights.
Step 4
SAF becomes rational
HEFA SAF spread now 87–116% above Jet-A. At $130/bbl, SAF wins.
SAF competitiveness at current vs. stressed prices
| Oil price scenario | Jet-A cost | HEFA SAF cost | SAF premium | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80/bbl (2024 baseline) | ~$0.95/L | $1.60–1.85/L | +70–95% | SAF uneconomic |
| $115/bbl (now) | ~$0.87/L | $1.60–1.85/L | +84–113% | Inflection zone |
| $130/bbl (stress) | ~$0.98/L | $1.60–1.85/L | +63–89% | Marginal switch |
| $150/bbl (2030 projection) | ~$1.13/L | $1.20–1.40/L (scaled) | −10 to +15% | SAF dominant |
Lufthansa flight cuts: a leading indicator
In April 2026, Lufthansa announced the cancellation of 20,000 short-haul flights. Surface reason: cost cutting. Deeper logic: the energy economics of aviation has reached an inflection point. Fuel now consumes ~30% of short-haul operating cost. With jet prices at current levels, 2–3% margin routes become unprofitable.
Price trend context
1d / 7d / 30d — same data as dashboard
Price Trends
1D / 7D / 30D historical changes
Latest Value
113.44 USD/bbl
as of 4/24/2026, 12:23:33 AM
1 Day
n/a
7 Days
n/a
30 Days
n/a
Decision checklist for operators
- ✗Wait-and-see — reserve levels this low historically precede rationing or price spikes. Waiting increases exposure.
- △Hedge forward — lock in jet fuel contracts at fixed prices if counterparties still offer them. Window narrowing.
- ✓Secure SAF offtake — negotiate long-term SAF purchase agreements (LOIs) now, before 2025–2026 demand surge.
- ✓Monitor this dashboard — we update reserve estimates weekly and market data every 10 minutes. Bookmark for daily checks.